PARIS: A French court on Monday will rule in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen over an alleged fake jobs scam at the EU parliament, a verdict which could ruin her chances of standing in the next presidential elections in two years.
Three-time presidential candidate Le Pen, who scents her best-ever chance to win the French presidency in 2027, has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.
But prosecutors in the case, which also targets other top National Rally (RN) officials, have asked the court to issue Le Pen with both a jail sentence and a ban from holding public office.
The latter should come into force immediately even if she appeals, according to the demand made by prosecutors last year, essentially disqualifying her from the presidential polls in two years if the court follows the request.
Le Pen said in a piece for the La Tribune Dimanche newspaper published on Sunday that the verdict gives the “judges the right of life or death over our movement.”
But referring to her potential immediate barring from standing for office, she added: “I do not think that they will go that far.”
As well as a five-year ban on holding office, prosecutors asked that Le Pen be given five years in prison — with three suspended and the two years potentially served outside of jail with a bracelet — and a 300,000 euro ($324,000) fine.
With her RN emerging as the single largest party in parliament after the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen believes she has the momentum to finally take the Elysee in 2027 on the back of public concern over immigration and the cost of living.
Polls currently predict she would easily top the first round of voting and make the run-off.
If successful in 2027, she could join a growing number of hard- and far-right leaders around the world ranging from Giorgia Meloni in Italy to Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Should she be condemned, waiting in the wings is her protege and RN party leader Jordan Bardella, just 29, who is not under investigation in the case.
Bardella last week became the first RN party leader to visit Israel, invited by the government to address a conference on the fight against anti-Semitism in a trip denounced by opponents as hypocrisy.
But there are doubts even within the party over the so-called “Plan B” and whether he has the experience for a presidential campaign.
Le Pen took over as head of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011 but rapidly took steps toward making the party an electoral force and shaking off the controversial legacy of its co-founder and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died earlier this year and who was often accused of making racist and anti-Semitic comments.
She renamed it the National Rally and embarked on a policy known as “dediabolization” (de-demonization) with the stated aim of making it acceptable to a wider range of voters.
Political death
Besides Le Pen, the RN is also in the dock and risks a fine of 4.3 million euros ($4.6 million), less than half of which would be suspended.
A total of 24 people are on trial, including nine former members of the European Parliament and their 12 parliamentary assistants.
A shocked Le Pen said after the prosecutors’ demands were announced that they were seeking “my political death” and accused them of denying the French a free choice at the next elections.
But prosecutors have insisted there has been no “harassment” of the RN.
They accuse the party of easing pressure on its own finances by using all of the 21,000-euro monthly allowance to which MEPs were entitled to pay “fictitious” parliamentary assistants, who actually worked for the party.
And prosecutors argue its “organized” nature was “strengthened” when Marine Le Pen took over as party leader in 2011.
According to an Ifop poll published by the Journal du Dimanche newspaper, Le Pen would win 34-37 percent in the first round of the next presidential elections. Her fate in the run-off second round would likely depend on whether all her opponents united to vote against her.
But with President Emmanuel Macron unable to stand again, it is far from clear who the strongest candidate will be from the center and traditional right to succeed him.
One possible hopeful, powerful Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, said in November while still a backbencher that it would be “profoundly shocking” if Le Pen could not stand.
